ORIGINAL RESEARCH

Estimating Benefits of Past, Current, and Future Reductions in Smoking Rates Using a Comprehensive Model With Competing Causes of Death

Age, y	Expected Life Years Gained at Each Age
	Women				Men
	Never Initiate	Quit at 25	Quit at 45	Quit at 65	Never Initiate	Quit at 25	Quit at 45	Quit at 65
25	0.002	0	0	0	0.005	0	0	0
30	0.004	0.001	0	0	0.008	0.001	0	0
35	0.006	0.002	0	0	0.012	0.003	0	0
40	0.009	0.004	0	0	0.017	0.006	0	0
45	0.015	0.007	0	0	0.025	0.011	0	0
50	0.023	0.014	0.002	0	0.038	0.021	0.004	0
55	0.035	0.023	0.006	0	0.056	0.037	0.012	0
60	0.053	0.038	0.015	0	0.083	0.059	0.027	0
65	0.085	0.062	0.031	0	0.124	0.092	0.050	0
70	0.131	0.096	0.067	0.004	0.177	0.135	0.095	0.015
75	0.187	0.137	0.111	0.015	0.234	0.179	0.145	0.034
80	0.239	0.171	0.149	0.048	0.269	0.202	0.176	0.063
85	0.261	0.179	0.164	0.070	0.252	0.181	0.164	0.066
90	0.211	0.135	0.126	0.074	0.169	0.113	0.104	0.055
95	0.108	0.061	0.058	0.039	0.072	0.042	0.039	0.024
100	0.034	0.016	0.015	0.011	0.020	0.009	0.009	0.006

Figure 1. Expected gain in years of life across the lifespan by age of quitting, relative to a lifetime smoker, by sex. After quitting smoking, individuals are more likely to be alive at every age after the quit age. The largest gain is around age 80, but gains are smaller for those who quit later in life.

Return to article

Age, y	Years of Life Gained Per 10,000 at Each Age
	Women			Men
	Years of Life Already Gained	Years of Life Yet to be Gained	Years of Life Gained if No Smoking	Years of Life Already Gained	Years of Life Yet to be Gained	Years of Life Gained if No Smoking
25	0	4.8	2.6	17.4	1.6	15.7
30	0.9	3.9	6.7	28.0	3.5	25.4
35	4.9	3.7	12.2	41.2	4.9	36.7
40	8.4	5.5	18.1	60.2	4.9	51.1
45	15.3	6.1	27.1	81.0	15.0	70.9
50	18.2	16.0	40.8	110.3	32.4	100.9
55	28.0	26.0	60.3	138.7	68.8	138.9
60	39.8	42.6	85.7	169.7	129.3	190.3
65	53.3	73.5	124.4	216.2	215.3	260.5
70	76.8	119.8	182.8	255.5	338.3	335.6
75	114.7	179.2	260.4	302.6	447.4	408.2
80	151.7	246.3	343.1	285.2	538.5	447.9
85	179.2	298.9	412.6	278.6	469.8	418.8
90	220.3	257.8	427.0	183.2	314.4	297.4
95	177.1	171.1	335.5	78.0	139.2	142.3
100	89.8	69.5	172.4	24.2	39.4	46.9
Change in Life Expectancy	0.6	0.9	1.2	1.2	1.3	1.6

Figure 2. Gains in years of life relative to mid-1900s initiation and cessation rates, by age and sex. Lower initiation and cessation rates have yielded additional life years in the population at all ages (area under the curve is the gain in life expectancy (ΔLE), and additional gains are expected if initiation and cessation rates stay at 2004 levels.

Return to article

---

The opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors' affiliated institutions.