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    Original site: www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2007/jul/06_0070_zhs.htm | RestoredCDC.org is an independent project, not affiliated with CDC or any federal entity. Visit CDC.gov for free official information. Due to archival on January 6, 2025, recent outbreak data is unavailable. Videos are not restored. Access data.restoredcdc.org for restored data. Use of this site implies acceptance of this disclaimer.
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                                          第4卷第3期，2007年7月                                                                                                                                                                                                
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第4卷第3期，2007年7月
                                          原创研究                                                                                                                                                                                                          
                                          美国糖尿病未来流行情况的合理预测：系统动态模拟建模的作用                                                                                                                                                                                  
 
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                                          Bobby Milstein, PhD, MPH, Andrew Jones, MS, Jack B. Homer, PhD, Dara Murphy, MPH, Joyce Essien, MD, MBA, Don Seville, MS                                                                                      
                                          建议在引用本文时注明下列出处：由Milstein B, Jones A, Homer JB, Murphy D, Essien J, Seville D所著的《美国糖尿病未来流行情况的合理预测：系统动态模拟建模的作用》[摘要]。2007年7月[引用日期]刊载于《慢性疾病预防》[网上期刊]。可从下面网址获取：http://www.cdc.gov/pcd/                             
                                          issues/2007/                                                                                                                                                                                                  
                                          jul/06_0070_zhs.htm。                                                                                                                                                                                          
                                          经同行评审                                                                                                                                                                                                         
                                          摘要                                                                                                                                                                                                            
                                          简介                                                                                                                                                                                                            
                                          “健康民众2010年”（Healthy People 2010, HP 2010）的目标是在2010年以前，将确诊的糖尿病（1型和2型）流行率降低38%。但是，制定这些目标的步骤并没有侧重于可实现性或这些目标与其他国家公共卫生目标的兼容性。 我们使用了一个动态模拟模型，探讨随着美国人口肥胖症的增加，糖尿病流行情况的合理趋势预测。该模型协助解读美国糖尿病流行情况的历史趋势，并合理预测至2010年的未来趋势。  
                                          方法                                                                                                                                                                                                            
                                          我们使用糖尿病人群动态计算机模型进行了模拟试验，以便1)追踪人们发展成糖尿病、确诊糖尿病以及死亡的比率，及2)评估各种预防保健干预措施的效用。使用依据多种来源数据的系统动态建模方法引导了这些分析。                                                                                                            
                                          结果                                                                                                                                                                                                            
                                          糖尿病的新增病例数目要远远超过糖尿病患者死亡人数，因此美国确诊糖尿病的流行程度很可能会继续增加。即使是降低新增病例数目达29%（ HP 2010的目标），也只能减缓，而不是扭转这一增加趋势。升高的糖尿病检出率或降低的病死率—也是HP 2010的目标—也会进一步增加确诊患者的流行程度。                                                                
                                          结论                                                                                                                                                                                                            
                                          由于这一历史性进程正在影响发病率、诊断率和病死率，HP 2010降低糖尿病流行程度的目标无法达成，即使是在未来实现零增长率也不太可能。系统动态建模方法显示，旨在预防慢性病的干预措施只能平缓地影响这些慢性病确诊病例的流行程度。                                                                                              
    The opinions expressed by authors contributing to this journal do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, the Public Health Service, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, or the authors’ affiliated institutions. Use of trade names is for identification only and does not imply endorsement by any of the groups named above.  
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